Recently, the U.S. tariff policy has once again attracted global attention. On April 2, 2025, local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order announcing the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods exported to the United States, setting the tariff rate for Chinese goods at 34%. This policy officially took effect on April 10, and combined with the previous 20% tariff, the total tariff on Chinese goods reached 54%.

The U.S. tariff policy adjustment this time is not an isolated incident. On February 4, 2025, the United States imposed an additional 10% tariff on China and canceled the tariff exemption policy for packages below $800. Although the duty-free policy was restored on February 7 due to pressure on the customs system, the tariff was raised to 20% on March 3 on the grounds of the "fentanyl problem". On April 2, the Trump administration further declared a national emergency, upgraded the tariff strategy to a global trade war framework, and implemented tiered reciprocal tariffs on the 15 economies with the largest trade deficits.

This series of policies has a chain reaction on the global economy. China quickly retaliated, imposing a 34% tariff on imports originating from the United States from April 10. Public opinion in the United States also rebounded. A Wall Street Journal poll showed that 54% of respondents opposed the imposition of tariffs. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that the US tariff policy will cause the economic growth rate to drop to 2.2% in 2025 and the inflation rate to rise to 2.8%.

At the industrial level, the United States' dependence on Chinese smartphones is as high as 9%. The tariff policy directly impacts Apple's market value, and its stock price has fallen by 20% in the past month. The AI server market has also been affected. TrendForce has lowered the annual growth rate of shipments in 2025 to 24.5%. In the field of cross-border e-commerce, the costs of platforms such as Temu and SHEIN have surged, and the cost of the direct mail model is expected to rise by 15%-25%.

The global supply chain is accelerating its reconstruction, and the proportion of overseas warehouse models has increased from 35% to 55%, and the popularity of Southeast Asian transit routes has increased. However, this policy is also facing international counter-pressure. The European Union has launched a counter-measure plan, and Canada and Mexico have refused to accept the tariff threat. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the potential impact of China’s countermeasures and the US election cycle on tariff policy.