1. Economic and trade frictions escalate, tariff barriers and countermeasures are intertwined
Sino-US economic and trade relations continue to be under pressure, and the US unilateralism policy has exacerbated bilateral trade tensions. In April 2025, the United States imposed tariffs on China on the grounds of fentanyl, and proposed 301 investigation restrictions such as port fees for China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries. The 34% tariff on silicone products previously implemented further increased China's export costs to the United States. Data shows that although the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States reached US$688.28 billion in 2024, the US trade deficit with China still triggered domestic political pressure, leading to repeated trade policies.

The Chinese government firmly opposes trade bullying and has taken countermeasures such as "11 arrows in a row", including imposing anti-dumping duties on US propionic acid and sanctions on US military enterprises. At the same time, China continues to optimize the business environment, attracting 27 US companies such as Eli Lilly and Qualcomm to participate in the China Development High-level Forum, showing market resilience. Although the two sides have not restarted economic and trade negotiations, there is a strong willingness for cooperation at the corporate level, highlighting the "political coldness and economic heat" characteristics of economic and trade relations.

2. Technological competition is heating up, and the cooperation framework faces reconstruction
The field of science and technology has become the core battlefield of the Sino-US game. The United States restricts China's access to key technologies such as semiconductor equipment and AI chips through export controls and entity lists, while promoting the "small courtyard and high wall" strategy to build exclusive alliances in fields such as quantum computing and biotechnology. However, American think tanks such as the Brookings Institution have proposed "opening up cooperation space in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles", reflecting their internal doubts about complete decoupling.

China responded to the blockade with independent innovation. In 2024, basic research expenditures accounted for 6.6% of total R&D investment, and formed technological advantages in photovoltaics, 5G and other fields. The two sides still have cooperation needs on global issues such as climate change and public health. For example, the building energy efficiency technology launched by the China-US Clean Energy Research Center (CERC) has benefited the world.

3. Diplomatic interactions are cautious, and the consensus of the heads of state is yet to be implemented
High-level communication channels remain unobstructed, but substantive progress is limited. In January 2025, Trump said that Sino-US relations were "very good", but in April, US Secretary of Defense Hegseth made inappropriate remarks on Sino-Pakistani relations, which were sternly refuted by China. The two sides exchanged views on issues such as technology ethics and data security in mechanisms such as the intergovernmental dialogue on artificial intelligence and the 1.5 track dialogue, but no specific agreement was reached.

At present, Sino-US relations are in a dynamic balance of "competition-cooperation-confrontation". The two sides need to resolve differences through equal dialogue and explore "guardrail" mechanisms in areas such as climate change and nuclear non-proliferation to avoid strategic misjudgments. As the Chinese position paper states, "China and the United States will benefit from cooperation and both will suffer from confrontation." Cooperation is still the key path to solving the current dilemma.