1. Cost transmission: DMC price fluctuations dominate silicone oil pricing
DMC is the core raw material of silicone oil, and its price fluctuations directly affect the production cost of silicone oil. Data from June 2025 showed that the market price of DMC in East China has fallen to 10,200-10,600 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 19.3% from the beginning of the year, which directly led to the weakening of silicone oil cost support. For example, the price of conventional viscosity products of dimethyl silicone oil was simultaneously reduced to 13,200-13,800 yuan/ton, a drop of about 250 yuan/ton. This cost transmission effect is particularly significant in the silicone oil industry chain. When the price of DMC falls, silicone oil companies often stimulate demand by lowering quotations in order to maintain profit margins, but due to the weak demand in traditional fields, price transmission is lagging.

2. Supply and demand game: Silicone oil demand differentiation exacerbates price fluctuations
The silicone oil market presents a differentiated pattern of "high-end stability and low-end weakness". Due to the strong demand in emerging fields such as photovoltaic encapsulation glue, the price of high hydrogen silicone oil remains at 6700-8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; while ordinary silicone oil is dragged down by the decline in demand in traditional fields such as textiles and daily chemicals, and the price is under obvious pressure. This differentiation leads to significant differences in the sensitivity of silicone oil companies to DMC price fluctuations: high-end silicone oil companies can partially offset cost pressure through technical barriers and customer binding; while low-end silicone oil companies are forced to follow DMC price adjustments, intensifying market competition.

3. Market Game: Dynamic Balance between Cost and Demand
The current DMC and silicone oil market presents the dual characteristics of "cost drive + demand game". On the one hand, the continuous decline in DMC prices forces silicone oil companies to compress profit margins, but some companies delay price declines through the strategy of closing prices and supporting prices; on the other hand, the structural differentiation of silicone oil demand (growth in emerging fields and shrinkage in traditional fields) leads to the failure of the price transmission mechanism. For example, due to the strong demand for photovoltaic-grade silicone oil, the price correlation with DMC is reduced; while ordinary silicone oil is completely subject to DMC cost fluctuations. This game makes the price of silicone oil fluctuate in the range of "cost bottom + demand top" in the short term. Enterprises need to break through the price dilemma through technology upgrades and customer structure optimization.

In the future, as the DMC destocking process advances (expected to last until August), the price of silicone oil may usher in a phased stabilization, but the trend of differentiation on the demand side will exist for a long time, and enterprises need to seek a balance between cost control and market expansion.