I. Core Product Price Trends
Organic Silicone DMC
Price Range: Mainstream quotes are concentrated in the 10,800-11,500 RMB/ton range, but regional price differences are significant.
The market price of domestically produced first-grade products (total ring mass fraction ≥99.5%) in Shandong Province is 13,000-13,500 RMB/ton (e.g., Shandong Dongyue Chemical and Luxi Chemical).
Some companies in Hebei and Henan offer prices as low as 10,500-11,000 RMB/ton, reflecting the divergence in market supply and demand.
Price Fluctuation Factors:
Raw Material: Industrial silicon spot prices remain weak, with quotes in the northwest region declining slightly, weakening cost support.
Supply: Monomer manufacturers continue to be willing to ship, but downstream demand is weak. Market transactions are primarily driven by demand, and industry players are bearish. Policy Impact: On August 26, the China Fluorosilicone and Organosilicon Materials Industry Association held an "anti-involution" meeting in Lanzhou, which heightened market wait-and-see sentiment but did not significantly alter price trends.
Organosilicon Waterproofing Agents
Price Divergence:
In Hubei Province, the market price of national standard products (produced in Tianjin) is 5,000 yuan/kg.
In Dongying City, Shandong Province, the price of the same specification product is only 4 yuan/kg. This price difference may be related to product purity and application areas.
Market Dynamics: Demand for waterproofing agents is affected by seasonal factors in industries such as construction and textiles, but price fluctuations are smaller than those for DMC, reflecting the stability of end-user demand.

II. Analysis of Market Drivers
Cost Pressure
Industrial silicon, the primary raw material for organosilicon, has been experiencing weak prices (for example, Huadong Tongyang's 553# silicon is quoted at 9,200-9,400 yuan/ton), directly depressing the bottom line for DMC.
Prices of auxiliary raw materials such as methyl chloride have stabilized, but this has failed to offset the downward impact of industrial silicon, resulting in overall weak cost support.
Supply and Demand Disparity Intensifies
On the Supply Side: Monomer plant operating rates remain high, but downstream purchasing interest is sluggish, leading to accumulated social inventory (e.g., SMM statistics show that social inventory of industrial silicon reached 543,000 tons on August 21).
On the Demand Side: Demand for major downstream silicone products (such as silicone rubber and silicone oil) remains weak, with companies primarily focusing on clearing inventory and sluggish new orders.
Policy and Industry Dynamics
The "anti-involution" meeting on August 26th sparked market expectations of capacity reduction, but this did not change the supply and demand landscape in the short term, and prices remained primarily volatile.
Weak industrial silicon futures prices (e.g., the main contract closed at 8,525 yuan/ton on August 27th, down 1.56%) further exacerbated market wait-and-see sentiment.

III. Regional Market Performance
Shandong Province
As a major silicone production area, DMC prices exhibited a polarized trend:
High-end market players (such as Dongyue Chemical and Luxi Chemical) maintained firm quotes, leveraging their brand and channel advantages to maintain profits. Intense price competition in the mid- and low-end markets has led some companies to recoup capital through price cuts and promotions.
Waterproofing agent prices vary significantly, reflecting the refined division of labor within the provincial industry chain (for example, Dongying City focuses on low-end products).
Hubei and Hebei Provinces
High waterproofing agent prices in Hubei Province may be related to demand from local high-end manufacturing industries (such as automotive and electronics).
DMC prices in Hebei Province are close to cost, reflecting regional supply and demand pressures.

IV. Market Outlook
Short-Term Trends
The weak industrial silicon price trend persists on the cost side, coupled with weak downstream demand. DMC prices are expected to remain under pressure, potentially falling to a range of 10,500-11,000 RMB/ton.
Waterproofing agent prices are supported by end-user demand, limiting declines, but the risk of raw material price fluctuations remains a concern.
Long-Term Variables
Policy Implementation: If the "anti-involution" meeting promotes capacity reduction, the market supply and demand landscape may gradually improve, but the effectiveness of policy implementation remains to be seen. Downstream demand recovery: With the arrival of the traditional peak season (September-October), a rebound in demand from sectors like construction and textiles could drive a price rebound.
International market dynamics: Changes in overseas silicone demand (such as a manufacturing recovery in Southeast Asia) could impact domestic exports, which in turn could affect prices.